Attention is turning to the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, with the start of an expected round of negotiations between Iran and the United States approaching, at a time when experts and analysts believe that the Strait of Hormuz has become the most important “golden card” that Tehran has at the negotiating table, amid continuing regional tensions and the complexity of the files related to the recent war and its political and economic repercussions.
According to reports and analyzes published by the Arab and Western media, talk about the upcoming negotiations cannot be separated from the field developments that the region has witnessed during the past weeks, especially after the escalation of the confrontation between the two parties, and the ensuing military and security movements that affected maritime traffic in the Gulf, so that the issue of the Strait of Hormuz turned into a fundamental axis in the conflict, because of the major strategic importance it represents in the transport of oil, energy and global trade.
Experts confirm that Iran is well aware that the Strait of Hormuz is not just a sea passage, but rather represents a pressure point capable of changing the balance of power, as any threat to shipping traffic in it is directly reflected in global markets and oil prices, which gives Tehran a sensitive negotiating card that may push Washington and its allies to deal cautiously with escalation options, especially with the high cost of continuing the crisis on the global economy.
Analysts believe that the United States is entering the negotiations seeking to achieve political and security gains, but at the same time it faces a major challenge in reducing the influence of the Iranian card related to the Strait, especially since control of shipping traffic in that region has become part of the equation of mutual deterrence. Experts add that Washington may try to focus on international guarantees to protect navigation or impose new security arrangements, while Iran believes that any agreement must guarantee its interests and lift the pressures imposed on it.
Analysis indicates that the upcoming negotiations will not be easy, as they involve many files that go beyond the issue of navigation, and include political and security aspects related to regional balances, as well as issues related to Iranian influence in the region, the issue of stopping military escalation, in addition to economic files that have become directly linked to global energy stability.
According to what observers see, Iran is entering this round trying to establish an equation that says that any future settlement cannot take place without recognizing its ability to influence the most important global sea lanes, while the United States seeks to reduce the impact of this pressure and distance the global economy from the danger of any long-term disruption in oil supplies.
Experts conclude that the Strait of Hormuz will be a major item in any potential agreement, and that the future of the negotiations will depend on the ability of the two parties to find a formula that balances the conflicting interests, especially since any failure may return the region to the escalation box again, while success may open the door to broader calm and understandings extending to other files in the Middle East.
